“Polarised Poland: Pro-Europe liberals and populist conservatives are at war”, discusses the current political landscape in Poland, highlighting the ongoing power struggle between the pro-European liberal coalition led by Donald Tusk and the populist conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS).

Here are the key elements:

• Political Shift in 2023:
  • Donald Tusk’s diverse coalition came to power in 2023, ending the eight-year rule of the right-wing Law and Justice Party (PiS).
  • Despite this, Tusk’s government is struggling to deliver on key reforms.
• The Rise of Karol Nawrocki:
  • Polish voters recently elected Karol Nawrocki as the country’s next President, backed by PiS.
  • Nawrocki is described as a 42-year-old historian and former boxer, who won the mayoral run-off in Warsaw with 50.89% of the vote.
  • His victory significantly impacts Mr. Tusk’s government and is seen as a moral booster for PiS.
  • Nawrocki capitalised on public resentment, attacking the Polish establishment and Brussels during his campaign.
• PiS’s Legacy and Ongoing Influence:
  • During its rule (2015-23), PiS implemented sweeping reforms aimed at tightening control over state institutions, recasting Polish society along ideological lines, curbing abortion rights, overhauling education, and filling the judiciary with party loyalists.
  • Tusk’s attempts to roll back these measures have met strong opposition from the outgoing President, Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally.
  • Nawrocki’s government is attempting to establish a “monopoly” of power and prevent Tusk’s government from securing a three-fifths parliamentary majority, which would be needed to override presidential vetoes.
• Poland’s Polarised Future:
  • Nawrocki’s victory and his populist, anti-establishment rhetoric may strengthen alliances between populist movements across the Atlantic.
  • While his campaign rhetoric opposed Ukraine joining NATO, he is unlikely to change Poland’s core foreign policy, which is pro-West and anti-Russia.
  • However, on social and economic policies, Nawrocki is expected to adhere to PiS’s right-wing conservatism.
  • The election result could exacerbate internal tensions within Tusk’s ideologically broad coalition, potentially reducing him to a “lame duck Prime Minister”.
  • This situation points to a turbulent phase for Poland, a politically polarised and socially divided nation, bracing for a “prolonged tug of war” between pro-European centrists and ascendant populist conservatives.